The Previous 3 Months Sales Data...

Observations based on the data above...

• Total # of Sales are DOWN 19.4% compared to October of last year (Total # of sales in October of 2022 was 859)
• Total # of Sales are DOWN about 14% month over month compared to September 2023
• Average Sold Price is DOWN about 5% year over year
  (October 2023 = $367,781 | October 2022 = $381,329)
• Average sold price is also DOWN about 5% month over month
  (October 2023 = 367,781 | September 2023 = $388,226)
• Days on Market is consistently hovering around 45 days
• Inventory has steadily been growing over the past few months

Crystal Ball predictions for November???

🔮 I predict that the total # of sales for the month of November will be 658 units.

🔮 I predict that the average sold price will be $378,743.

🔮 I predict that the average days on market will remain about the same.

🔮 I predict that the total # of homes actively up for sale in November will increase by about 100 units... grand total of 2,630 units.

Mortgage Rate News?

Mortgage rates have fallen slightly over the past couple of weeks, but not enough in my opinion to go celebrating out in the street.

Mortgage rates have been pretty much in lockstep with the 10 year treasury yield as of late. When the 10 year yield rises… so does the rate for 30 year fixed rate mortgages.

Mortgage Rates first got above 7% back in the beginning of August, and they came dangerously close to breaching 8% a few weeks ago when the 10 year yield hit 4.998%. 

Since then, the 10 year yield has been falling and currently sits at 4.547% (November 15th 12:22 pm), and the mortgage rates that local lenders are sending me today are anywhere between 7.50 - 7.85%… depending of course on individual credit score.

***New construction home builders and their in-house lending team are still offering lower mortgage rates than what traditional lenders are offering. I'm seeing a lot of rates from builders between 6.00 - 6.99%.

Conclusion:

The Pensacola Real Estate Market is going through a normal/expected slow down period.

The fall and winter months are typically slower than the spring and summer.

Rising mortgage rates typically cause prices to come down.

45 days on market is very normal. During 2018 and 2019 the average days on market was between 60 - 90 days.

I don't see rising inventory as a major concern. We're finally starting to see inventory levels rise to where they were pre-pandemic.

Mortgage rates and rising inventory should put downward pressure on price.

Bottom line, the market is stabilizing and returning to normal.

***Interested in learning more about where the Pensacola real estate market is headed? checkout the video below....